The rule of Unintended Consequences

When I was working in Human Resources we always kept in the back of our mind the “Rule of Unintended Consequences” which talks about outcomes resulting from a purposeful action that are not foreseen or intended. The term was popularized in the early 20th century (can anyone remember back that far?) by American sociologist Robert Merton but the idea goes much farther back than that.

You’re probably already familiar with this notion that every action taken has a ripple effect and no one can absolutely predict where those ripples may go. Unintended consequences can be split generally into three categories: unexpected benefits (sometimes referred to as luck, serendipity, or a windfall), unexpected drawbacks (the Corona Virus itself is an example of this as I mentioned in my blog from yesterday, I don’t believe the Chinese intended to unleash this new strain of infection upon the world), and perverse results where the consequence is you actually make the situation worse or the direct opposite of the expected or desired outcome. Like most things in our not so black and white world, the unintended consequences of the current pandemic may have outcomes that fall into each of these categories. We’ve already seen examples of the latter two buckets - unintended drawbacks and perverse results. That dreaded scourge of the toilet paper shortage (not to mention thousands of deaths around the globe) is an example of an unintended drawback. Only the most deranged among us would think for a moment that President Xi Jinping of China unleashed COVID-19 with the intent of causing an American shortage of T.P. And the beach going Spring Break partiers in Miami are perhaps an example of a truly perverse result - their refusal to social distance may have made the situation worse (as one pundit put it, their attitude and refusal to act in a socially responsible manner may be a death sentence for their grandparents, something surely they didn’t intend).

T.V. ad from this morning. Would that I

could actually find this at my local store...

My logical brain is fascinated with how all these unintended consequences will roll out. For example, you may have noticed how for several days after restaurants and bars were forced to close there were still restaurant ads running hawking great deals but for “dine-in only”. One of my favorite newscasters of the past, Adele Arakawa (formerly of KUSA 9 News in Denver) is currently in ads telling us that now is the time to start buying patio furniture from a local retailer. This at the same time when the State of Colorado’s Unemployment Insurance website is crashing due to thousands of folks losing their jobs in the blink of an eye.  Chevrolet is now offering 84 month zero percent financing on their vehicles; hopefully in 84 months (7 years!) we’re fully recovered from the unintended consequences that are only starting to unfold.

My worry isn’t so much the ludicrous nature of such ads in the face of what we’re currently dealing with but rather what it means when those ads, and all ads for that matter, stop because the only things Americans are buying is food and yes, toilet paper. What happens to all the media outlets when ad revenues dry up? If you’re in a younger generation you might be thinking what difference does it make - you don’t watch that dinosaur called television and you haven’t read a newspaper in like, forever. Fair enough, maybe we can afford to lose one (or more...) of the local T.V. Stations and perhaps no one will miss our one true statewide newspaper (though I will). But think for a moment where you get your news. Where do you turn to hear truth (however you define it) spoken? Facebook? Twitter? YouTube? That old standby - Google? Instagram, SnapChat, Tumblr, Reddit? Most, if not all of our current social media sites depend on the same thing - advertising revenue. Mark Zuckerberg may be a billionaire but how long will your Facebook feed last without it generating income for its founder? Facebook may say it’s free, but, and you already know this, it’s not.

The rule of unintended consequences has been set in motion. If you or I had the ability to foresee them we'd be wealthier than Mr. Zuckerberg. I, like you, have a seat front and center to see how all this will play out. A hundred years from now they will be studying us like we are suddenly brushing up on things like the Spanish Flu pandemic of a century ago. It’s likely that only your grandchildren’s grandchildren will truly appreciate all the unintended consequences of COVID-19. The legacy of what we do (and don't do) today will last far, far into the future.

Some other unintended consequences already starting to unfold:

• countries starting to pull out of the upcoming Tokyo Olympics
• Stock Market continues to free fall
• Amazon bumps pay for its warehouse workers (unintended benefit?)
• CEO's thinking about cutting their own pay before cutting jobs (unintended benefit?)