Where does the road lead from here?

My wife shared this from her Facebook feed.
What are you trying to tell me honey?

I’m sure you and your family are starting the “what if” thought process. With Mr. Trump (to his credit) extending the social distancing guidelines though April at the recommendation of his pandemic task force Americans are looking at working from home, teaching their kids at home, worshiping from home, exercising from home, doing almost everything from home for at least the next four weeks. In my household it’s just myself and my wife and this morning over breakfast (I made her a very nice omelette and toast, thank you very much) had a frank conversation about how to plan our days over the next several weeks so that we don’t drive each other crazy. I can only imagine what it’s like in families of two parents and one or more kids what the stress levels must already be, let alone what they’ll be like in a month of being together 24-7. My wife and I are still in love with each other (I know, TMI) after 30 years and we don’t want that to change because of an increasingly pesky virus. Private time is going to become very important is our household and we’ve both agreed that when we inevitably start snipping at each other we’ll head each to our separate corners for some alone time. Fortunately we have both shared interests as well as our own personal hobbies and I can buy my wife earplugs for when I drag out the guitar.

Exercise for us is our biggest stress reliever and our primary outdoor exercise comes in the form of cycling and walking the dogs. We’re clearly not unique in those activities as indicated by the number of folks out pedaling on the local bike paths and walking their canine companions. We had planned to ride toward downtown Denver yesterday along the South Platte River Trail but ultimately decided it was crazy to be riding TOWARDS a city center that is a hotbed of viral activity. Instead, we headed south into Chatfield State Park which thankfully is still open. Candidly though, riding the bike paths is becoming problematic. Though it is easy to maintain six feet of distance from those ahead and behind us that doesn’t solve the issue of when you pass, or are passed by, someone else. The paths don’t really allow people to pass with 6 feet of clearance and the thought occurred to me that in the short stint from Mineral and Santa Fe to the roads within Chatfield we came within too close proximity to more than a hundred people along the path. We had taken a tongue-in-cheek instagram picture of us decked out in our cycling attire and wearing face masks before the ride; next time I ride the paths I’ll keep the mask on instead of taking it off. We only saw two cyclists actually riding with face masks but that number will increase by at least two the next time we ride.

As an aside, they are building a huge housing development just outside the south entrance to Chatfield. We noticed that the six model homes are now nearly complete. Interestingly they are so closely built to each other that there barely seems to be six feet between them. What will Corona mean for urban planners of the future who up to now seemed intent on forcing us to live in increasingly densely populated areas? How can there not be ‘community spread’ when you can shake your neighbors hand from your bathroom window?

Though this is new to all of us, America has experienced a major pandemic in the past. If you didn’t see it in yesterday’s paper, the Denver Post had an excellent article about how Colorado handled the flu pandemic in 1918-1919. I didn’t realize that what was called the ‘Spanish’ flu actually originated in western Kansas. Who knew?

So we have reached a point where COVID-19 is more than an annoyance for most Americans. The number of infected is in the hundreds of thousands and those dying from the virus is in the thousands and growing. And from all accounts it sounds like it’s an equal opportunity virus hitting all segments of the population from infants to the elderly though those with underlying health issues remain most at risk. I for one have concluded that I don’t want to catch it. A month ago while working Spring Training Baseball in Arizona (talk about lots and lots of people contact) when Corona was just starting to make headlines I clearly remember thinking that we’d all probably catch it at some point so why not catch it and get it over with. Not now. We’ve reached a point where even healthcare workers, those charged with protecting us, are starting to succumb and if that doesn’t make me take this seriously then I really am as stupid as I sometimes suspect.

Stay safe, stay sane, and forgive me if I don’t recognize you on the bike path behind your mask.

Disconnected...

I’m feeling a little disconnected right now. Topsy Turvy doesn’t begin to describe the surreal situation we find ourselves in. Olympics postponed, Denver issuing a stay at home order (except for essential trips to places like grocery stores, medical services, the airport, and of course those twin staples of life in Colorado - liquor stores and marijuana shops), and our President saying the cure must not be worse than the problem as he considers “reopening” the country in the next week or two because the effect on the economy has been too severe. This despite warnings from senior health officials that the U.S. has not yet felt the worst of the pandemic.

Who’s right? The doomsday folks who think we’re in for a prolonged period of coping with Covid, or the President who seems to think, in his heart of hearts, that this is all much ado about nothing. He could be right; stranger things have happened, but it strains credulity to think that by mid-April we’ll be back to normal (whatever that means). If you’re an employer who’s just sent people home to work, or worse yet laid them off, are you going to feel comfortable resuming normal operations in the next two weeks? As an employee, are you comfortable returning to the office? I mean, who’s gonna take your spot in line at 6 a.m. as you wait for your 1 in a 1000 chance of scoring a roll of toilet paper at your neighborhood Walmart? And who’s going to watch the kiddos if the nation’s schools don’t reopen according to the schedule Mr. Trump has in mind?

Like I said, disconnected. I occasionally watch Governor Polis’s news conferences as he updates what efforts the State of Colorado is taking to combat Corona. You may or may not have voted for him but thus far he seems to be erring on the side of caution. As are most of the nation’s Governors in the absence of any real Federal leadership.

The thing is, I hope the President is right. I’m generally an optimist at heart but still believe in hoping for the best but being prepared for the worst. The next couple of weeks will tell. Stay tuned!

“I would my horse had the speed of your tongue”  Benedick Act 1 Scene 1 Much Ado About Nothing by William Shakespeare

The rule of Unintended Consequences

When I was working in Human Resources we always kept in the back of our mind the “Rule of Unintended Consequences” which talks about outcomes resulting from a purposeful action that are not foreseen or intended. The term was popularized in the early 20th century (can anyone remember back that far?) by American sociologist Robert Merton but the idea goes much farther back than that.

You’re probably already familiar with this notion that every action taken has a ripple effect and no one can absolutely predict where those ripples may go. Unintended consequences can be split generally into three categories: unexpected benefits (sometimes referred to as luck, serendipity, or a windfall), unexpected drawbacks (the Corona Virus itself is an example of this as I mentioned in my blog from yesterday, I don’t believe the Chinese intended to unleash this new strain of infection upon the world), and perverse results where the consequence is you actually make the situation worse or the direct opposite of the expected or desired outcome. Like most things in our not so black and white world, the unintended consequences of the current pandemic may have outcomes that fall into each of these categories. We’ve already seen examples of the latter two buckets - unintended drawbacks and perverse results. That dreaded scourge of the toilet paper shortage (not to mention thousands of deaths around the globe) is an example of an unintended drawback. Only the most deranged among us would think for a moment that President Xi Jinping of China unleashed COVID-19 with the intent of causing an American shortage of T.P. And the beach going Spring Break partiers in Miami are perhaps an example of a truly perverse result - their refusal to social distance may have made the situation worse (as one pundit put it, their attitude and refusal to act in a socially responsible manner may be a death sentence for their grandparents, something surely they didn’t intend).

T.V. ad from this morning. Would that I

could actually find this at my local store...

My logical brain is fascinated with how all these unintended consequences will roll out. For example, you may have noticed how for several days after restaurants and bars were forced to close there were still restaurant ads running hawking great deals but for “dine-in only”. One of my favorite newscasters of the past, Adele Arakawa (formerly of KUSA 9 News in Denver) is currently in ads telling us that now is the time to start buying patio furniture from a local retailer. This at the same time when the State of Colorado’s Unemployment Insurance website is crashing due to thousands of folks losing their jobs in the blink of an eye.  Chevrolet is now offering 84 month zero percent financing on their vehicles; hopefully in 84 months (7 years!) we’re fully recovered from the unintended consequences that are only starting to unfold.

My worry isn’t so much the ludicrous nature of such ads in the face of what we’re currently dealing with but rather what it means when those ads, and all ads for that matter, stop because the only things Americans are buying is food and yes, toilet paper. What happens to all the media outlets when ad revenues dry up? If you’re in a younger generation you might be thinking what difference does it make - you don’t watch that dinosaur called television and you haven’t read a newspaper in like, forever. Fair enough, maybe we can afford to lose one (or more...) of the local T.V. Stations and perhaps no one will miss our one true statewide newspaper (though I will). But think for a moment where you get your news. Where do you turn to hear truth (however you define it) spoken? Facebook? Twitter? YouTube? That old standby - Google? Instagram, SnapChat, Tumblr, Reddit? Most, if not all of our current social media sites depend on the same thing - advertising revenue. Mark Zuckerberg may be a billionaire but how long will your Facebook feed last without it generating income for its founder? Facebook may say it’s free, but, and you already know this, it’s not.

The rule of unintended consequences has been set in motion. If you or I had the ability to foresee them we'd be wealthier than Mr. Zuckerberg. I, like you, have a seat front and center to see how all this will play out. A hundred years from now they will be studying us like we are suddenly brushing up on things like the Spanish Flu pandemic of a century ago. It’s likely that only your grandchildren’s grandchildren will truly appreciate all the unintended consequences of COVID-19. The legacy of what we do (and don't do) today will last far, far into the future.

Some other unintended consequences already starting to unfold:

• countries starting to pull out of the upcoming Tokyo Olympics
• Stock Market continues to free fall
• Amazon bumps pay for its warehouse workers (unintended benefit?)
• CEO's thinking about cutting their own pay before cutting jobs (unintended benefit?)

Does China get a pass?

No need to tell you the joys of social distancing, the somber trip down empty grocery shelves (way beyond just the aisles that used to feature mega packages of toilet paper), driving by your favorite restaurants and bars and seeing them shuttered, and past empty church parking lots on what should be their busiest day. You already know this because like me you’re living it.

Like most things in America the focus quickly turns to money. The Federal Government is slowly (really, how slow can they go?) working on an economic bailout that you and I will ultimately foot the bill for for years, if not generations, to come. And all because a virus made the jump from animals to humans
in a nondescript Chinese outdoor market. Which brings me to the question of this blog - given the global calamity wrought by this Chinese virus, does China simply get a pass when this crisis is eventually over?

If the Chinese military had masterminded this crisis as an actual attack on the rest of the world they could not have done it any better than what has actually occurred. And make no mistake, military and terrorist organizations worldwide, including ours, are studying this pandemic to learn, with both good and evil intent, the lessons being taught on how quickly humanity can be brought to its knees. And what if this had been an actual biological attack by the Chinese? French President Macron has said we’re at war with this virus, but what if it had actually been an act of war that brought us to where we are today? Who needs expensive military weapons, stockpiles of nuclear bombs, millions of men and women in uniform when all that was really needed was some animals in cages and a lack of any semblance of basic hygiene in Wuhan?

Today’s Denver Post headline reads “A moment when normal changed”. We have no real idea whatever the new normal will look like and the ripple effects from what is going on today can only be guaranteed to be long and far reaching. My wife and I went grocery shopping this morning, standing in line at our local Safeway (will they need to change that name in the new normal?) before dawn to shop not just for ourselves but also for my wife’s parents who are old enough to be solidly entrenched in the ‘high risk’ category. My father in law is not well and I’ll leave it at that. I was actually glad he could not go shopping on his own to see what modern America’s grocery distribution system has been reduced to. Every generation aspires to leave the world a better place and those of a certain generation today can only shake their heads and wonder what has the world come to?

Like I said above, much of the focus is, and will continue to be, on the financial aspects of this crisis. My nieces and nephews, just starting out in their careers, barely have any recollection of the last financial downturn but I hazard a guess they will not soon forget what is coming before things eventually (spelled h o p e f u l l y) take a turn for the better. Age-wise, a year ago some of them could have been on those Florida spring break beaches thumbing their noses at the rest of the world and loudly proclaiming their pride in being the ‘ME First!’ Generation. If they’re lucky they may live to regret their youthful arrogance; if they succumb along with an unhealthy proportion of the rest of us, they’ll be just another data point of lost economic contribution.

We can all hope for a speedy (however you define that term) recovery. Some would argue we were due for an economic downturn anyway. I am not saying, nor do I believe, that China had any malevolent intent behind what has happened, and what will be in the days, months, and god forbid, years to come. Yet if for no other reason than basic accountability, China should not just get a pass on what their latest export has wrought.

The season that wasn't...

I spent much of my free time recently trying to wrap up completion of the videos from our Panama Canal cruise so I'm a little behind on updating what I was up to in Arizona. This was the fourth season I've headed down to Surprise Stadium (in where else - Surprise, AZ) to work Baseball Spring Training. Surprise Stadium hosts two teams, the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers and I think it's the nicest stadium in the entire Cactus League.

The weather saw a mix of cold and wet interspersed with a couple of nice days but the Arizona warmth that draws folks to the desert southwest in February and March never really took hold while I was there this year. And of course March 12 will go down in the history books as the day Major League Baseball canceled the remainder of Spring Training due to the Corona Virus. At Surprise Stadium they had opened the gates as usual an hour and a half ahead of the 1:05 start time and fans were flocking in despite the twofold threat of stormy skies and a pending decision on the season being canceled. I think most fans there that day felt relieved once in the stadium and were fully expecting the game that day to be played. Forty minutes prior to the start however their hopes were dashed as coldly as the water that was soon destined to pour from the leaden skies. There were more than a few fans who had only arrived in town that morning looking forward to watching grown men play what is after all a child's game under the blazing Arizona sun. Such was not to be and disappointment cast a gloom on the stadium almost as dark as the skies. Still, hope springs eternal and if Spring Training is about anything its hope and the promise of new beginnings. So while the Corona Virus is still with us, and likely is going to get worse before it gets better let us not forget that there will come a day in the hopefully not too distant future where we can sit in shirt sleeves, eat hot dogs and drink cold beer, and cheer when once again the ump calls out "Play ball!" once more.

And lest we forget, it wasn't all doom and gloom. Here are some of the highlights of the season that was while we console ourselves on the part that wasn't.

Finally home...

Coit Tower watches over us as we dock at Pier 27

Home at last!

Our last segment of our cruise from New York to San Francisco took us under the majestic span of the Golden Gate Bridge. To sail under this landmark was a bucket list item checked off. We were up way before dawn in order not to miss it and seeing the bridge pass over our heads was bittersweet as it meant we were finally home but at the same time that sadly our trip was coming to an end.

Given the devastating impact that the current Corona Virus will likely have on the Cruise industry it would appear, in hindsight, that we were on one of the last cruises to have sailed worry-free from this new pandemic. I truly hope to be able to again feel the deck of a cruise ship beneath my feet and to banter with the crew and passengers once more without threat of contagion or quarantine. To the crew of the Norwegian Gem I can only once again say thank you. Your care of us during our voyage is something I have only come to appreciate more with the passage of time. And a special thanks to Liam, T.J., and Althessa (from South Africa, India, and the Philippines) who brought such a personal touch as they epitomized what their fellow crewmembers do day in, day out.

And to my readers, thank you also for sailing along on this journey of a lifetime. May the Road That Beckons continue to beckon all of us in the hopefully brighter days ahead. See you down the road!

Here's the video of our final segment:

Homeward Bound... stops in Los Angeles and Santa Barbara

We had left Cabo San Lucas after thoroughly enjoying our time, albeit short, there. I could see spending a week or two in Cabo at some time in the future to explore all it has to offer. We sailed north toward California waters  with our destination being Los Angeles and then Santa Barbara before sailing under the Golden Gate Bridge and into San Francisco. Yup, sad to say, our twenty day cruise was coming to an end at a speed of 20 knots. Would that I could have slowed that down.

In Los Angeles we visited the USS Iowa museum which features, as you could guess, the now retired battleship Iowa which served our country from WWII through the Cold War. I'm writing this blog in Arizona as I work Spring Training baseball at Surprise Stadium. The stadium sits close to Luke Air Force Base and we are constantly being overflown with lots of fighter jets. They are incredibly loud but the locals tolerate the noise by saying that 'that's the sound of freedom'. Point taken. The shame, of course, as a species, is that we are so set on destroying each other that such sounds of freedom remain necessary to this day. Thus the existence of the Iowa. She features the largest guns (16" diameter) ever featured on a U.S. naval ship but also in her later years was capable of firing nuclear-tipped shells as well as launching cruise missiles. She could not only hurt you, but obliterate you.

From L.A. we sailed on to Santa Barbara for a lowkey visit that saw us strolling downtown and along Stearns Wharf. I also got a chance to visit the Santa Barbara Surf Shop. I don't know how to surf but am an avid windsurfer so felt a kindred spirit as I walked among the magical boards made to glide along the waves.

Here's a quick sampler of some of the sights from L.A. and Santa Barbara. Thanks for sailing along! We're already trying to figure out what our next adventure will be, Coronavirus be damned...

El Arco, Lovers Beach, and more

As we continued our cruise northward along the Mexican coast our next stop was the resort city of Cabo San Lucas. Situated in a beautiful location Cabo's unique rock formations beckon you to stop and explore and that's what we did. Once again we used the Gem's lifeboats to tender us in from the ship which stopped about a mile offshore. We were not the only cruise ship to visit Cabo this day; there were three altogether letting loose their thousands of passengers eager to explore this town that sits between the Pacific and the Gulf of California (also known as the Sea of Cortez).

We ventured out on another sea excursion to see the sights that included Lovers Beach, Sea Lions, whales, the famous El Arco, and more. I hate to admit that I hadn't been to Cabo before but one thing I appreciated was it's sense of humor from the whimsical T-shirts proclaiming that Cabo is on the right side of Mr. Trump's wall to the advertisements championing Mexican Viagra. Anyway, you'll see glimpses of all that in the video snapshot below. If you've been to Cabo and spent more than a day there you know far more than I about this fun resort that seems to be the definition of fun in the sun. Definitely a place to come back to...