What do you think the world is going to look post-pandemic? Next with Kyle Clark on Denver’s channel 9 last night was asking the question as to how would we even know when the pandemic is ‘over’. They didn’t provide a particularly clear answer and I guess the fact is no one really knows. It’s all uncharted terrain. Even though there was a pandemic 100 years ago the world is such a different place today that parallels between then and now perhaps don’t apply.
One thing I’m fairly certain of is that we’d all better hold on tight to our wallets and purses. The signs are already out there - ‘they’ (and there's a lot of 'them' in 'they') are coming for our money. From travel to housing to the gas pump the inflation that the Federal Reserve has been worrying about for so long seems to be peeking it’s ugly head from around the COVID corner. I’m retired and like a lot of folks in my position aspired to spend part of my golden years seeing the world. Mind you, I’m not wealthy by any stretch so we’re not talking round the world cruises or anything like that but when we come across a trip that interests us and is also affordable my wife and I are all set to pack our bags. We use one of the travel agents at AAA of Colorado and over the years Angie has helped us take some fantastic trips at some great prices. Last January we cruised from New York to San Francisco through the Panama Canal for the exorbitant sum of $900 per person. If you can beat that for a three week trip please, please, let me know.
We’ve stayed in touch with Angie during the pandemic and we generally trust her counsel on all things travel-related. She’s been telling us to watch for some great deals as travel restrictions begin to ease but I’m beginning to second guess her. From what I’m seeing it appears the travel industry is going to try cover a year's worth of lost revenue by the tried and true method of raising prices as high as demand will allow. Now, I understand that that’s the American Way - charge what the market will bear, supply and demand and all that. But just saying that post-pandemic it might get a tad out of hand. Note to Cruise Industry if you're remotely listening - if you want my money don't give me a credit for a future trip if my boat don't sail due to COVID - give me MY money back. We'd have booked several trips by now in anticipation of the end of the pandemic but are not willing to extend interest-free loans to our favorite cruise lines if the trip gets cancelled.
My wife and I are avid cyclists and have taken bike trips all over the country which is why I actually started this blog back in May 2016. Thanks to Google algorithms we’re inundated with ads hawking the next great bike adventure and in the last couple of weeks these ads have reached a crescendo as warm weather arrives everywhere except in Colorado which seems to have entered the next Ice Age (snowed another six inches last night - April 19th). The lure of uncrowded pavement certainly is attractive but the prices seem to have gone through the roof. One four day trip pedaling the back roads of Vermont weighed in at $4,700 per person. If you think that is a good deal, or remotely affordable for the average Joe or Jane then you can stop reading right here. I grew up in New England and have cycled most of the routes that part of the country offers (through rain, sun, and snow) and I'd be hard pressed to recall riding by any accommodations worthy of upwards of $1,000 per day, per person.
Then there's housing. Like many of you we constantly get unsolicited offers from companies offering to buy our house. The prices they are offering just keep going up and up and up some more. So we look at each other and say, "what if we did sell? Where would we go? Let's go look at model homes!"
One of our local cycling routes takes us through Chatfield State Park and out to Titan Road. Over the last year we've watched a new Shea Homes development called 'Solstice' rise from the once-barren ranch land. At first the signs advertised "From the $400's!" which was enough for us to pull in and take a look at the beautiful models. And beautiful they truly are. Now they're building ranches that also originally were advertised as from the "high $400's". For us the main attraction is the location - right outside a State Park - so we've kept an eye out. But alas, the prices continue to skyrocket as fast as fireworks on the fourth of July. Given what companies like Open Door are offering for our current abode we once would have been able to afford one of these new homes and actually pocket a little cash from the deal. Then it reached the point where it would be a lateral move - sell our house and pay the same for the new one. Now to make a move to this wonderful community we'd have to assume a hefty new mortgage on a new, smaller, home. I know, I know, woe is me.
Part of the reason new home prices are going up so fast, apart from incredibly high demand, is the price of lumber has gone up eight-fold in the last year. 2x4 studs for example, which are at the heart of any stick-built house, that used to cost as little as $2 are now going for anywhere from $7.25 to $10.82 each (at Home Depot). And there are a lot of 2x4 studs in a home - approximately 580 in a 3,200 square foot house. Something about the Pine Beetle killing one out of every three trees in British Columbia - a classic case of overdemand outpacing dwindling resources. My college economics professor would be proud. Yes, she would.
I could go on and on about other things rising in price (gas prices are up 22.5% over last year and expected to climb to 3 year high this summer) but unless you're living in a bubble you already know this firsthand. Just when I got my second vaccine shot and was starting to feel good about the future reality has to slap me upside the head. And that new reality is apparently going to come with a very hefty price tag attached. Now, where'd I put my wallet....
Welcome to the new norm!
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